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Crucial Night: Non-Farm Payrolls and the impact on Fed's Sep Rate Move

This evening the spotlight is firmly fixed on the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a pivotal economic metric that holds the potential to sway the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) deliberations concerning interest rate modifications in September.


Recent trends in NFP, JOLTS and ADP employment indicators suggest a rapidly weakening outlook for the labor market. The market sentiment is leaning towards a significant bounce back  from the last NFP report towards the 3 month moving average with 161k new jobs anticipated for August vs 114k in July. This result would show July may have been an outlier. A disappointing NFP report will reinforce market concerns about economic growth and employment conditions. The market should quickly move to price in a 50bp move by the Fed for September


Also keep an eye on prior month revisions which have been largely negative in recent months reports.


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